@Article{TavaresGiaChoSilLyr:2018:ClChIm,
author = "Tavares, Priscila da Silva and Giarolla, Ang{\'e}lica and Chou,
Sin Chan and Silva, Adan Juliano de Paula and Lyra, Andr{\'e} de
Arruda",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabica coffee in
southeast Brazil",
journal = "Regional Environmental Change",
year = "2018",
volume = "18",
number = "3",
pages = "873--883",
month = "mar.",
keywords = "Climate scenarios, Agroclimatic zoning, Arabica coffee, Eta model,
Brazil.",
abstract = "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections
of global mean temperature rises are worrisome for coffee crop due
to the intolerance of the Arabica species to high air temperature
variations. The crop has a large participation in the Brazilian
trade balance; therefore, in this study, the impacts of climate
change on the potential yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica
L.) were assessed in the areas of Southeast Brazil in future
climate change scenarios. Simulations of the Eta Regional Climate
Model at 5-km resolution used in this study were generated from a
second dynamic downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES model runs. The
projections adopted two scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration,
the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and considered the period 2011-2100. The
projections indicated a large reduction of about 20 to 60% of the
areas currently suitable for coffee cultivation in Southeast
Brazil. In the RCP8.5 scenario, at the end of century, coffee
cultivation is suitable only in elevated mountain areas, which
would pose difficulties to farming management due to the operation
of agricultural machinery in mountain areas. In addition, coffee
cultivation in these regions could produce environmental impacts
in the remnant Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Areas of high climatic
risk increase due to temperature increase. The projections showed
that the potential yield could be reduced by about 25% by the end
of the twenty-first century. These results of potential coffee
yield in the future climate indicate a need for adaptation studies
of Arabica coffee cultivation.",
doi = "10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z",
issn = "1436-3798 and 1436-378X",
language = "en",
targetfile = "tavares_climate.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}